The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday that El Niño conditions have officially formed in the tropical Pacific Ocean, with forecasters warning this event could rank among the strongest in recorded history.
The U.S. climate agency declared the phenomenon after sea surface temperatures in the key monitoring region rose 0.7 degrees Celsius above the long-term average, comfortably crossing the 0.5-degree threshold required to officially mark El Niño’s onset.
According to NOAA’s June outlook, there is a 63 percent probability that El Niño will reach the “very strong” category during the November to January period. If that threshold is met, the event would rank among the largest El Niño occurrences since 1950.
The three strongest El Niño events on record occurred in 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16. Some computer models are projecting sea surface temperatures could climb more than 2 degrees Celsius above average in certain Pacific regions by year’s end.
“El Niño conditions developed over the past month, as shown by above-average sea surface temperatures across the central to eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean,” NOAA stated in its Climate Prediction Center update.
The weather pattern typically strengthens the jet stream over the southern United States during winter months, often bringing increased storm activity and precipitation to southern states while keeping northern regions relatively warmer. Global temperature patterns are also affected, typically pushing global temperatures higher.
NOAA officials cautioned that even very strong El Niño events do not always produce their expected impacts uniformly across all regions. However, they significantly shift the odds toward those anticipated weather patterns.
National Weather Service Director Ken Graham noted that each El Niño event affects weather differently. “Advanced monitoring technology and deeper understanding of El Niño patterns allow for more accurate predictions and better preparation,” he said in a statement.
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