TEHRAN, Nov. 2 — Iran is actively negotiating a “two-day plan” framework that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world’s crude oil and a large share of liquefied natural gas move, though Tehran emphasized over the weekend that no final agreement has been reached.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on November 1 that a delegation led by his deputy had visited Qatar to continue talks with Qatari and Pakistani mediators, and that Tehran had accepted the proposal in principle: on the first day the United States would take a set of compliance steps, and on the second the strait would reopen with traffic returning to its previous state. The “two-day plan” is a compressed version of an earlier Iranian proposal that had set a seven-day window; Qatari mediators had suggested shortening the timeline before Tehran agreed to the two-day format. However, Araghchi stressed that “consultations with mediators on the two-day plan are currently ongoing, but we have not yet reached a final outcome,” adding that whether one is reached “depends on the other side‘s answers to our questions”.
The plan is the latest product of an intense round of shuttle diplomacy. Qatari mediators held talks in Tehran on October 30 that lasted more than 12 hours, then moved to Doha on October 31 as part of a three-day continuous negotiation, maintaining regular coordination with Washington throughout. The push aimed to secure a provisional understanding before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3 and to avert another large-scale military strike on Iran.
Doha submitted a revised ceasefire draft on October 25 proposing a seven-day confidence-building timetable, seeking to persuade Iran to permit United Nations inspectors access to nuclear sites damaged in recent strikes, in exchange for Washington relaxing some sanctions. Iranian officials initially described the Qatari ideas as “unacceptable” — a senior official saying Doha had offered “unacceptable ideas rather than a proposal” — but said consultations would continue.
The central sticking point remains sequencing. Tehran insists the United States first lift the port blockade, ease oil sanctions and release frozen funds before it restores normal transit through Hormuz and engages on nuclear issues. Washington wants the nuclear question addressed early, including access to facilities and a disposition for roughly 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent — a stockpile the IAEA has recorded at 440.9 kilograms.
The diplomatic track runs against a backdrop of military buildup. The U.S. military has announced boarding and inspection of vessels at Iranian ports, and two carrier strike groups — the USS Washington and USS Bush — are positioned in nearby waters; the USS Theodore Roosevelt is expected to arrive by late November. On November 2, the United Arab Emirates condemned in the strongest terms an attack on the Qatari LNG carrier “Al Mayeda” in the Arabian Gulf, calling it a grave threat to maritime navigation and global energy supplies; maritime agencies also reported a vessel struck by an unknown projectile in the strait.
Analysts note that even a partial, time-limited reopening would ease pressure on global energy markets, though the underlying disputes over sanctions, enrichment and security guarantees remain unresolved.