Diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran conflict are running headlong into a surge of military operations on the ground, creating a disconnect between the diplomatic track and military operations on the ground.
President Donald Trump announced on May 24 that a deal with Iran had been “largely negotiated,” following calls with leaders from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain. The next day, however, he told his negotiators “not to rush” and said the blockade of Iranian ports would “remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking during a visit to India, said “significant progress, although not final progress, has been made.”
The shift in tone followed US Central Command’s confirmation of strikes on two Iranian naval vessels laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and a surface-to-air missile site near Bandar Abbas on May 25 — actions Washington described as “self-defense” but which came during an active ceasefire period and ongoing negotiations. Iran’s IRGC described the strikes as a violation of the ceasefire and warned of a “legitimate and certain” right to respond. CENTCOM spokesperson Tim Hawkins stated that the strikes were limited in scope and that the command “continues to defend our forces while using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire.” Iranian state media reported four people killed in the attack. Two US officials told Fox News that the strikes do not indicate the ceasefire is over.
According to the Associated Press, the emerging framework under discussion includes a 60-day memorandum of understanding during which Iran would gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the US would end its blockade of Iranian ports. Iran has also agreed to discuss giving up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium — 440.9 kilograms enriched to 60% purity, according to the IAEA — though how that would happen remains subject to further negotiation. Iran has not publicly committed to transferring its uranium abroad, and Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei described the draft as a framework meant first to end the war, with additional details to be discussed over a “reasonable time span.”
Simultaneously, Israel has continued military operations in Lebanon. A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah has been in effect since April 17, but fighting has continued on both sides. Hezbollah has launched daily drones and projectiles toward Israeli positions, and Israel has struck targets across Lebanon while its troops remain in southern areas. More than 3,000 people have been killed in the latest round of fighting, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry. Netanyahu stated that any final agreement with Iran must address the nuclear threat, and that Trump had reaffirmed Israel’s right to defend itself on every front, including Lebanon.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reiterated on state TV that Iran is not pursuing a nuclear weapon. Pakistan’s army chief, Asim Munir, has served as a key mediator, traveling to Tehran for talks with Iranian officials.
The emerging picture is one of a conflict where diplomacy and military force operate on separate tracks — and where each new strike pushes the terms of any settlement further into conditional territory.