The World Meteorological Organization released its Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2026-2035 on May 28, warning of an increased likelihood of global temperatures exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold set under the Paris Agreement.
The report, coordinated by the United Kingdom Met Office with contributions from 13 international institutions, projects that global mean temperatures from 2026 to 2030 will be 1.3 to 1.9 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.
According to the findings, there is now a 91 percent probability that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius, up from an 86 percent probability estimated in previous projections. The chance of a five-year average exceeding this threshold stands at 75 percent, compared to 70 percent in earlier assessments.
The probability of at least one year surpassing 2024 as the warmest year on record is estimated at 86 percent. However, the likelihood of any single year exceeding 2 degrees Celsius remains below 1 percent.
The report indicates that an El Nino pattern is expected to develop by the end of 2026, potentially driving record temperatures in 2027. Arctic winters are projected to warm more than 3.5 times the global average, with temperatures 2.8 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 baseline.
The Amazon region faces elevated risks of drought and wildfires, according to climate models presented in the report. Researchers emphasize that temporary exceedances of the 1.5 degree threshold do not constitute failure of the Paris Agreement, which is designed to assess long-term trends over 20-year averages.
However, the WMO notes that frequent exceedances increase the risk of triggering irreversible tipping points in Earth’s climate system. The organization continues to stress the importance of global emissions reductions to limit long-term warming.